Re: Space Warfare I - The Gravity Well
Also posted in the linked article:
Sundog said...I'd like to challenge some points here.
I don't disagree regarding low orbit. Engagement times for incoming SOMs (Surface to Orbit Missiles) are too short, and a low-orbit SOM is too small and too launcher mobile. The advantage is indeed with the ground.
Where I have the problem is control of high orbit. With a half-hour window to do something about an incoming SOM, as you point out, there's plenty that can be done to counter it. What I don't agree with is that energy weapons would take their place.
Assuming E-Weapons are in use, the energy curve is ALL on the orbital side. They can have relatively light, defensive arms to deal with SOMs once they crest the atmosphere. The ground facility needs a LOT more power - it has to punch through Kilometers of energy-scattering gas before reaching vacuum, and then still have enough cohesion to reach out to high orbit and do damage. You're talking a much larger emitter and a massively greater power source.
Now the counter argument is, of course, that since they don't have to move, the defensive facility and power source can be as large as necessary. However, this obviates the concept of "getting lost on the clutter". Besides being rather obvious visually, any such power plant is going to stand out like a flare in thermal from the waste heat. Even if you manage to pump the heat elsewhere and disguise the base, your first shot will be backtracked to your emitter site pretty much instantly.
And that heat has to go somewhere - a flare point is going to tell the orbital enemy of the existence of your base, if not it's location.
A maxim of modern warfare is "if I can hit it, I can kill it". You'll get one shot with your E-Weapon - then the Thor clusters will rain down. Simple kinetic impactors will hit with enough force to punch out any imaginable armouring. You might take out a ship - for the loss of a facility of roughly equal cost.
Finally, I think you're betting too much on the capacity to be stealthy from space. Spy satellites today have quite incredible resolution, and it's much easier to drop a tiny, hard to spot and hard to hit spy sat into low orbit than it is to find and kill said sat - especially if your major tracking stations were among the first targets destroyed. Modern spy sats can differentiate between an 18-wheeler and a bus - it's not that much of a stretch to be able to differentiate between a cargo hauler and a missile hauler.
Now, none of this invalidates your position on the near future, but I think it throws a few wrenches into the idea that the ground vs space argument is in favor of the ground.
June 9, 2009 9:29 PM
Just so our native experts can, y'know, poke massive holes in it...