unclevlad

Pick up new talking points, see how their disinformation campaigns are working. Only makes sense. NYT headline:

Gonzaga is the favorite at +330...bet 100, get paid 430 for a profit of 330. That puts the converse bet...anyone but Gonzaga...would be probably -450...bet 450, make 100 if it goes that way. Possibly a little worse but you get the idea. And that's the favorite. Arkansas is already a major longshot at +4300, so it'd be at least -4500 for "anyone but Arkansas." So I suppose it depends on what you define "profitable" as. Hey, if Logan wants to be a wild and crazy optimist, Murray State is +18600.

But for comparison purposes, as of early January according to the Guardian, more than 40% still believed the election was stolen. So there's a major gap there. Not as large as one would prefer, but it's clearly large enough to prevent the clown from staging an effective comeback, if it's sufficiently important to them. Plus: that 74% number is legit. The snide after-comment sounds like one of the late night guys. BUT...that 74% was reported by Yahoo! News...2 weeks ago. I couldn't quickly find anything newer, but how Russia is proceeding is, I suspect, turning more people off.

So just go to work writing copy for Copper Fit.

I really, really do. Wait, what do you MEAN it's pushing 7????? The sun's still shining in the west window, over the door.........!!!! Argh. Made a scheduling mistake...got a dental appointment for tomorrow morning, not realizing it was the day after the time change. UGH.

It will be interesting to see how much Trump's position will alienate people, because from what I've seen, support for Russia's only been on the very fringe.

Hey, the name makes sense. UMBC is just off the Bay; a well respected dog breed is the Chesapeake Bay Retriever. But, yeah...that was a shocker. Just given that everyone's been pretty erratic, I'd say there's more of a chance another will lose...but we're talking maybe 50 to 1 instead of 200 to 1, per team. Wait...take that back. Baylor's still hurt. Norfolk State should only be a long shot, not sweepstakes odds. Yeah...early futures, they're only +1300. Georgia State is +3500 against Gonzaga. No lines on the other 2 because those are the play-ins. A 2 seed losing? I'm going with 50% chance. I can't watch the NIT. Not super crazy about tournaments like that, being played at team sites...not fair. Worse...for the first round in particular, too many teams checked out when they didn't make the dance, and just go through the motions. And at times, it's *really* obvious.

So the brackets are being released as I type this. The local team (NMSU)...co-champs during the season, they said, and won their tournament...got a 12 seed. Quite good for a 1 bid league. And *the* seed for upset purposes...12's beat 5's with amazing frequency, 33%. By comparison, 13's beat 4's only 21% of the time, and 11's beat 6's only 37% of the time. The 12's are frequently underseeded, it looks like. In the 2nd round, the 12's are 9-3 against 13's...but also 13-29, 31% versus the 4 seed. Now there's some tweaks to this. The NCAA restructured things a few years ago. There's 4 play-in games; it's a 68 team tourney. What they did is the lowest 4 automatic bids, and the lowest 4 at-large bids, play. The at-larges...2 of em are "11 seeds" and 2 are "12 seeds." That *generally* means they're the weakest teams from the big multi-bid "power" conferences...and IMO frequently overvalued. Well, fun fun fun. Reveal's over. No, I'm NOT gonna watch everyone pick over every matchup, every seed, every undeserved entry, every snub...even if it'll dominate discussion tonight.

Yep. It's legal. Article 1, Section 8, gives the power to Congress. It hasn't been used by general agreement since, IIRC, the War of 1812. For obvious international relations complications. Yeah, I got reminded of these because an author invoked them, to allow an action that would've been otherwise impossible. And I remember going "OMG" when I read it...because it's a major step. Executing a letter of marque is itself arguably a casus bellum; the issuing government is trying to shield itself, but that shield's ethically flimsy. This might pass. If Russia chooses to ignore international law with regard to patents, one can make the case that this is a proper form of response. If Russia starts nationalizing? STRONG grounds. Whether Biden will sign any? Can't say. Any particular letter should have narrow scope.

Russia's been restoring Cold War bases because Putin has decided it was a Good Time for Russia, and he's determined to return to it, or so it would appear. Only this time around, he'll be completely isolated economically, and the Russian internal economy is still, I believe, inept. OK, so he'll clearly on track now to expropriate everything of any major value established by Europe or the US, but the flip side is no one will invest in Russia for the next decade, at least. If Russia won't honor patents, then even after export bans are relaxed, there'll be critical/advanced tech bans for a similar period. Side effect: Russia will try to steal tech. It'll be a good time to be in counterespionage. Secondary...I wouldn't be surprised if the Doomsday Clock gets advanced, albeit not perhaps before the next regular review this summer. This is a very dangerous time; the West might be mostly fighting an economic war, but it *is* a form of war, and can only be destabiliizing.

Shifts: I *detest* the push to eliminate shifts. Hitters can't avoid pulling the ball? Wahhhhhhhhhhhhh. Learn. Stop glorifying bad hitting. Pitch clock: again, they're pros. Like the hitter...the goal isn't to figure out anything. THAT takes 10 seconds. The rest of the time is to get the batter to second-guess. But me? I think it screws up the pitcher. A smooth, even, well-paced rhythm always seems to pay better than herky-jerky, slow pitching. The pitcher gets no rhythm doing that. Pitchers will adjust. Batters will adjust. They'll whine and bitch for several years, but they'll adjust. Pro basketball went to the shot clock in 1954. I have to question any memories you might claim of the transition. Logan: IIRC, if the pitch clock runs out, it's called a ball, IIRC. Balk would only matter when a runner's on base (and I believe there is no pitch clock there).

I haven't seen a live game in 50 years, so...no. And I'm glad. I'm completely losing any tolerance for most slow play cases; tennis has several players that stretch the serve clock. (Altho the serve clock has some procedural points that need to be worked out better.) Someone standing at the service line bouncing the ball a dozen times drives me up the wall. The whole point of it, far too often IMO, is trying to rattle the opponent. The practical result is to aggravate the audience.

New details: 1. Doubleheaders will be 9 innings, not 7. 2. Standard rules...no runner on 2nd...in extra innings. So we'll have the damned, BORING!!! marathons that kills bullpens. There's NO doubt in my mind that the standings will mean nothing before...I wanna say the 4th of July holiday, or thereabouts. Opening day is set for April 7th, that's 4 weeks, so there'll be no time for preseason. Pitchers will be treated with kid gloves by pretty much *everyone*...especially given the extra innings and doubleheaders...and neither pitchers nor hitters are going to be sharp for quite some time. Also, 12 team playoff. That's high but not horrible, from the standpoint of regular-season valuation. Too few teams, it's too sensitive; too many, it's too diluted. The general consensus I've seen is the sweet spot is about 1/3 of the teams, with anything from about 25% to about 40% being OK. This is 40%. A concern here: the executive committee voted 8-0 to *reject*. The player reps voted 26-4 to *accept*. That suggests it'll be ratified to me...but also that there are serious unsatisfactory conditions, so we may well be right back here in 2027.

Kris Bryant was held in the minors for a couple months before he was called up, until a particular deadline was passed. That deadline impacted his years of service credit; after it passed, he didn't get credit. Years of service dictate when a player can become a free agent, so by sitting the player out for a few months, the club gets an additional year of control. Bryant was an early, *glaring* example but it's gone on a fair bit, as I understand it.

Elements in the agreement right now, from ESPN: Other elements of the deal include: • A 45-day window for MLB to implement rules changes -- among them a pitch clock, ban on shifts and larger bases in the 2023 season • The National League adopting the designated hitter • A draft lottery implemented with the intent of discouraging tanking • Draft-pick inducements to discourage service-time manipulation • Limiting the number of times a player can be optioned to the minor leagues in one season The DH was gonna happen. Yeah, I get the purists dislike it, but not doing it has nasty ramifications on bullpen use. Plus, the existing situation was IMO *clearly* the WORST case, with one league doing it, and the other not. If they do the pitch clock, I want to see a batter clock as well. Jeter was one of the worst...step out after EVERY pitch, fiddle with gloves, fiddle with guards, step back in, get reset. NO. Yeah, OK, if the batter fouls one off his leg/foot, give him a moment, but otherwise, stay in the freaking box and ready to hit!!!!!! Also: not sure what the rule is when there's runners on base. In the past, it's been tossed out the window altogether, but that's something I'd want changed. Sounds like the players did get some movement on the competitive balance and service time points, and those were big.

Plus, I can't see the NHL returning to a market in which it didn't do well. Trying to establish a new fanbase when the locals already have strong ties to existing franchises is a Bad Move. The Clippers took forever to get anywhere; AFAIK the Chargers are bombing in LA as well.

WHOA!!!!! Surprise, surprise, surprise!!! MLB.com is reporting an agreement has been reached, pending ratification. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mlbpa-agree-to-cba NO details, tho. Which is a concern. A comment last time was that Tony Clark gave away too much last time, so if there isn't enough movement on things, it's possible to me that it *won't* be ratified by the players. I'm less worried about the owners agreeing, but it'd be foolish to say that's a foregone conclusion. One point that was mentioned: they'll schedule doubleheaders for the cancelled games, it'll be a full 162 game season.

Sure, but some chance is better than no chance. Trade's just going across ESPN Bottom Line right now...just got back from shopping. Only a 3rd round pick, and Commanders are picking up ALL of Wentz' salary? Yeah, I'd rather take my chances even in a "weak" QB draft. IMO, this is a massively one-sided trade, in Indy's favor. Heinicke was the lowest rated starting QB in the league, it looks like...altho it's always an open question how much of that is not having a supporting cast. Wentz was middle of the pack. So it's an upgrade, most likely, in some senses. The problem is that Wentz makes too many boneheaded plays that lose games. A friend of mine used to say, everything's junk. There's good junk, there's bad junk, and there's flaky junk. The worst is flaky junk. Wentz' play is flaky junk.

This just in: Colts trade Wentz. To Washington. The "definition" of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result. Washington is repeating their QB pattern: overpaid and underachieving.

Yep. Visible light was left behind several years ago...but so were excimer lasers, at least for the high-end chips. Excimer lasers operate around 150-200 nm; that's an order of magnitude too coarse. The tech for modern chips uses extreme UV (EUV) lasers, at about 13 nm. These are complex as all heck, HUGE, and use a LOT!!! of power. For the geeks: https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-does-the-laser-technology-in-euv-lithography-work Modern chip fabrication is insane. Article mentions the price tag of one of these systems: $120M.

Trading Wilson simply recognizes the team's in 100% rebuild mode, and he's too costly a piece. Releasing Wager is along those lines as well, and even more: maybe he's got a good year or two left, but linebacker is a wear and tear position. The decline can be pretty fast. I've long preferred releasing or trading those very expensive players who are likely approaching the end of their careers...especially given the contracts such players have. The downside for Seahawks fans...they're tied with the Jags at 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. (Worse: Texans, Jets, and Lions are 150-1. But that's it.) That suggests something around 5-6 wins.

Holy moly.... I didn't hear about this until just a bit ago. Saturday, at a La Liga (top Mexican soccer league) match, a brawl broke out between fans of the home team and visiting team. A MAJOR brawl. As in 26 injured, 3 critically. That's officially; some claim there were people killed, and the government's statements may well be...less than honest. The league came out with the punishments. From the Sporting News: Youch. The league didn't pull their punches. The major target is the club management, which feels correct.

ESPN Bottom Line showed the draft picks: 1, 2, and 5 this year; 1 and 2 next year. So they really have to hope Wilson's the answer because it's unlikely they'll get significant improvement from the draft. Which also means no rookie contracts to help balance out Wilson's contract.

Denver has to be believing that, yeah, all they needed was a very good QB. We shall see. One thing I haven't seen yet: what the years are for those picks. Might need to get the trade finalized before we get that. Still, that cost was high. This could also represent Elway's Last Chance. If Wilson can't do it, then...can Elway survive? And I see Rodgers got what he wanted with his passive-aggressive shakedown of the Packers. THERE'S the team in win-now mode, much more than Denver. I simply don't think they'll be able to maintain a viable team around The Big Crybaby long term, not when he represents such a massive percentage of their cap space.

Yeah, but there's also a strong potential racism or corruption element there. IMO the trial judge was completely off base. The burden of proof was on Hertz; their failure to produce the paperwork isn't proof. The defendant's possession of signed records, and proof of payment, *has* to constitute reasonable doubt. And as a secondary point, why did the DA file the case with that much conflicting evidence? I'm NOT someone looking to play the racism card; I rather intensely dislike doing so, as a rule. That said, I can't see a third explanation: corruption or racism. I think Hertz is going to lose, and lose HARD. The consequences they've triggered are inherently extremely damaging...a felony arrest on its own is a HUGE deal, even if it never goes to trial. The fact that they refuse to adjust their data when the facts change, is a massive strike against them, IMO. It will be interesting to see if even the bankruptcy filing saves them from liability; I believe this is the type of behavior that doesn't get absolved with the bankruptcy. We shall see about that; that's getting into the weeds of bankruptcy law. Might well need a bankruptcy specialist for something like this. And the per-case damages seem like they might get *rather* substantial. Loss of income. Attorney fees. Pain and suffering. Punitive damages due to Hertz' reckless disregard? Hope so.