unclevlad

Don't look now.... But... Based on the standings showing Baltimore in 3rd, TB in 4th today? If the season ended today, the Orioles are the last playoff team. 22-30 on 1 June. 58-52 now. That's over .600 ball, for almost 60 games.

But hey, self inflicted futility is the hallmark of half the teams in the league. And then there's the Jets. They have plenty of self-inflicted futility, and now you can add losing their big #1 pick OT....which may have been at least partly self-inflicted. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34374198/new-york-jets-coach-robert-saleh-says-mekhi-becton-season-likely-knee-injury

I'm not sure I see much reason to keep ANY of the Miller footage in, if you're gonna have to re-shoot everything where he's Barry anyway. It just feels a lot more sensible to just dissociate from him *completely* as fast as possible. There's just wayyyyy too much that's incredibly toxic in these reports, and the problems just keep piling on. Right now there's another: https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/ezra-miller-vermont-child-services-department-1392572/ This is in addition to the felony burglary charges from yesterday. If he's connected to a cult where he's putting YOUNG kids at risk, this almost has to be the kiss of death; Warner will have no choice but to cut all ties ASAP. Much like Jared Fogel and Subway. But heck, at this point? It's already too serious in my book. The longer they appear to hang on to him, the more damage I think they'll do to the entire brand.

And in the DC Quick references table on V1, after the index, 2 DCs is given as 1/2d6 OR 1d6-1. Which, I believe, is mentioned in other places, AND it's how it's done in HD. Your argument then asserting 6 DCs is 3d6-3 is absurd. That's not how it's done, and you know it. The issue has never been anything but how to treat the residual 1 or 2 DCs, it's not the basis for scaling up from 2 to 2*N. This, BTW, is why the Standard Effect rule is so bad. Of course negation is purchased in DCs, but overall attack power is limited in DCs...THEN converted to dice based on DC-affecting advantages. When dealing with bonus damage separate from the attack power itself, all bonus damage is bought in DCs...then converted to dice. That is the correct process to follow with negation. If a GM said I'd be stuck with getting the averages for the amount negated, but he rolls full dice? Then damage negation becomes even LESS cost effective in a combined defense because the moderately high rolls become MORE likely. I don't care about the issue of taking a little BODY; taking ONLY negation is foolish. The proper treatment for negation in an overall defense strategy is to counter STUN. Which means that shift? Is EXTREMELY alarming.

Yeah, given everything going on, Warner's not putting a dime into a venture like DC Heroes. Rumors of DC's overall vulnerability have been circulating for a few years, which arguably suggests there's more smoke than fire, but the new CEO is a slash and burn cost reductionist. And games are just not significant revenue streams now. The RPG industry in general, is also...not in good shape. I'll grant I don't follow things closely, but...what new stuff is coming out? And that's *before* the last 2 years. The 18 months of social distancing had to be massively damaging. Granted, connecting online might help some, but that's got limitations, and I don't think it's all that close to the same thing. Article here: https://www.wired.com/story/tabletop-rpg-workers-say-their-jobs-are-no-fantasy/ We hear much the same about comic artists...making ends meet is HARD as a freelancer, and that's the dominant model. It's great for the employer; it's a TON cheaper. (For a full-time, full-benefits, on-site employee...for every dollar the employer pays in salary to the employee, they pay another dollar *or more* elsewhere...group health care share, leave, Social Security employer share, facilities costs, etc. etc. A freelancer generally avoids ALL of those; they're self-employed and must find their own insurance...which BTW is MASSIVELY more expensive if they can't get covered by a group plan.)

Hey, we all know the Bengals' history. Lose the SB, go back into their shell for multiple years. I mean, sure, I believe in SB hangovers, but they're not supposed to last multiple years... So no need to diss the Bengals; history says they'll do that to themselves. Besides, the list of teams *totally* worthy of rejection and disdain is...rather extensive. The Bengals can be slotted in Mostly Harmless.

ESPN is reporting that the NFL is appealing, at least in part, because they consider each case to be a separate violation of the conduct policy...so, 4 violations, not one. While I get it, isn't that something to bring up before the arbiter? If they did, and she still said "6 weeks"...they're overturning. If they didn't, or didn't do it clearly or forcefully...that's their mistake. Appeals don't give you a second chance to fix your tactical argument.

RAW says 2 DCs killing can be treated as 1/2 d6 OR 1d6-1. The first is nonsensical and mathematically Just Plain Wrong, so I'll always argue for the second. The other argument is whether we should round up or down. I prefer rounding down here. And while I agree with you on the standard effect, I will NOT!!!!!!!! give the defense an advantage. Treat them the same, IMO. Asymmetry here is bad, IMO. For a 2 DC per d6? No, never do the conversion where you're doing it. ALWAYS convert the negation levels, which is in DCs, to dice...which is the units of the attack. It's the same table as we've been talking about, so it's no trouble, and it's giving them the identical breakpoints and funky incremental weirdness. 1/2 d6 averages 2 STUN on attack, so that's how much it is for negation. It's 2/3 of a BODY, ok, call that 1 BODY as well. I'm really not worried about that. Just for grins, a bit of analysis. This is looking at the STUN on the higher end. Note that the low-end STUN is similar...but odds are that other defenses will make the difference moot. The notional situation is a 12d6 attack with 4 dice of negation; I'm not implying this is the whole of the defense. (Which is why the low-end stun is less relevant to me.) The 50% point is the same...the mean of each distribution is 28. Note that from 32-35 net STUN, 12d6-14 is about 5% more likely. Also, this was Monte Carlo, but should be fairly close. AnyDice says 36+ STUN on 12d6-14 happens 10+% of the time; 38+, it drops to 5+%. On 8d6, tho, 36 STUN is WELL out towards the tail...it's only 2% of the time. What this suggests is, if you take this approach to damage negation, you'll probably want to be careful with your CON, as those somewhat-above-average rolls that might lead to getting stunned, are in the range of uncommon, but still semi-regular. This would worry me. This is basically the same chart, with an additional 16 DEF applied. Same thing: just knocking the average off is actually significantly increasing the frequency of significant STUN. What's going on? The standard deviation of 12d6-14 is the standard deviation of 12d6...which is just under 6. The standard deviation of 8d6 is a bit shy of 5. So while the means are the same...the distributions are notably different, and both highs and lows are more likely with the 12d6. The lows are less important, tho.

So, in other words, just subtract the average. This is OK for normal damage; it's wonky for killing damage, tho, because the BODY is rather irregular, at least using your numbers. Sure, it's great for specifically 6 levels of negation, but what about 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5? There has to be a 2 point jump in there somewhere. (I'd argue for 5 dice, because a 5 DC KA is 2d6-1, and thus assuming rounding down, where the 2 point jump in damage would occur.) Also, structurally, you're giving damage negation the "standard effect" approach...but giving it a bit more. I'll grant that I'd be fine with updating standard effect to operate similarly; as it is, standard effect reduced the power's effectiveness by 1/7th. That's turning a 7d6 into a 6d6, at least when you're just counting pips. I've got no issue that the odd die gets rounded down, as I'd rather take a bit away, but compelling that to be the case with ALL the dice is a poor choice. Simpler, but poor.

A federal judge denied an emergency request for a TRO for 3 LIV golfers to compete in the FedEx Cup's first event, which starts Thursday. Yeah, it's real hard to claim irreparable harm when LIV is giving guaranteed checks. If that's the best grounds the players had, then I wanna know the lawyers...so I can avoid them for ANYTHING. That argument is absolutely ludicrous. Note that the anti-trust grounds are different, so this doesn't speak strongly there. Still, denying a TRO is largely saying "stop wasting the court's time."

I'd be interested to see the trends over time, altho it's possible they're not directly comparable. The question, for example Bold mine. This has, I think, grown greatly due to Trumpism.

......while also keeping those lovely profits intact. Yeah, I'm a little cynical whenever I hear an owner moaning about money.......especially after a Super Bowl appearance.

So the Bengals got a new naming deal for the stadium. Paycor Stadium. Now there's one that rolls off the tongue...... Elsewhere, the Washington Commanders fired their DL coach due to "philosophical differences." Just as training camp is really picking up? Not exactly an encouraging sign. And the league owners gave approval for the sale to the Broncos. Ugh. But it was largely foregone, I suppose.

The essay in Vogue is worth reading.

Well since Mr. P kicked off the NFL thread, I'll get the college thread. Preseason polls are about as full of meaningful comments as afternoon talk radio, but still...the preseason picks are Next Verse, Same as the Rest. Bama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson. Hey, maybe one of em won't live up to expectations. Asking for 2 of em to fall flat...that's a bridge too far. Scary...the very lightweight first week...even called "Week 0" in the schedule on si.com...has 10 games, largely non-entities...and it's Aug. 27th. GAH!!!! Not ready for football. Nevada's actually coming down to play the Aggies that weekend. No game time listed yet...I'm wondering if the Aggies are hoping to get it picked up. Hopefully it'll be an evening kickoff; if it's an afternoon kickoff, the stadium could be dangerously hot. The seating area is ALL concrete. (Yeah, it's as attractive a place to watch a game as that sounds like.) Mid 90s is still quite common. The big bonanza is, of course, Labor Day weekend. Games start Thursday (probably all night games...the Aggies took a paycheck game at Minnesota, 5 days after the season opener...? No one else has scheduled such a quick turnaround) with more games Friday, and of course the massive slate Saturday. The NFL has no games, so there's Made For TV matchups Sunday and Monday, I presume ESPN night games. Heh...for grins, SI had a link to another story. Best team in each state. Ouchhhhh Not terrible, DEEPLY terrible. Well, they had 1 decent, freak season where they went 6-6 and won a bowl game...2017. Almost the only one they made in my lifetime...and I'm retired. (1960 was the prior one.) Take out that season, and since 2005 they're a combined 38-145. Yeah. Deeply terrible.

There were about a dozen HBP, yeah...I think it was 9 by NorCal, but not by one pitcher. Don't recall for sure, I don't pay attention that closely. And it was Little League ALL day...9 am to 9 pm. Things run together.

The Stolen Election faction probably figures they've never left that state...they were just biding their time. That said, one has to think that authorities in general are keeping a wary eye out...both for what Trumpists might try to do, and because they may well just protest at federal offices...and potentially trigger a counter-protest. And then....? It's a chain, so it might not fully play out anywhere, but it's a pretty reasonable chain. It could happen.

Trump's reaction is entirely predictable. Reading it is somewhat amusing, but I wish I coulda seen his face when he got the news, or got served the subpoena for the search. THAT would've been priceless. He of course says "never happened to a President"...when, in fact, he's not. I'll grant it's probably never happened to a former President either, but then, no former President has incited sedition.

Firing up...unless you've modified it, the default baseline height is 2 meters. 1 level, 1 meter; 2 levels, 0.5 meters. 3 levels, 0.25 meters. If you've adjusted the height? 1.8 meters --> 0.225 meters, which might get shown in some areas as 0.2. For the other character...check and see if you have the height entered in inches...but the units of measure is set to meters in the preferences?

AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I gotta vent. Little League, regional play. Pitch gets away; batter gets hit in the ear flap. LEAST amount of force deflection/absorption. Kid takes 2 steps, then hands go to his head and he drops down to his knees. Then, clearly audible, some (*&#$(WEUR_(QY$T{IQWEP(*^#$U EUP(*@B $C:OIFH@#P(*Y$#*O%U(*&#$@#$#$ is screaming out "you're all right, shake it off!" AAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! The kid is NOT!!!! all right. It's a freaking blow to the head...and the kid is clearly affected. Concussion is absolutely a serious concern...and a shot in the temple area, even moreso than usual. EDIT: AFAIK these are in the minority, but...this is worse. From a few weeks ago: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/nation-world/national/article263405153.html Coach of a 9-10 year old team is smacking the opposing team (who won) during the postgame handshake line. Removed as coach, of course. Better still...the guy's a sergeant in the police department, and has been relieved of duty pending the results of an Internal Affairs investigation. Hope he gets fired, and I suspect the Houston police department may well do it, if the rules allow them to, because smacking around young kids is something NO one will accept. Little League is crazy, cuz you never quite know what's gonna happen. Northern California vs. Hawaii was 3-3 going into the bottom of the 5th. NorCal pitchers had a bad start to the inning...a 3 run shot made it 8-3 at one point, and it's, well...NorCal batters are gonna have their work cut out. Little League only plays 6 innings. But it never got there. At 10-3, Hawaii got another 3 run homer. Which is a walk-off...due to the 10 run rule. Always gotta feel for the losing teams, especially in a game like that, where it came out of the blue. The good news was, it wasn't an elimination game.

That's been true for a couple decades, and a major issue for at least a decade. Not even sure I could pick a single poster boy leading the way...LBJ, Harden, Irving? At least those might be the recent ones.

And the Republicans would stonewall at least 4 nominations until they had control again....

I am extremely glad I'm type 2 and therefore not on insulin. Less about the cost, more about the basic aspect that monitoring is MUCH more of an issue, and swings are more severe. Insulin prices are...tricky, in that the amount a patient needs varies quite a bit. And in the last few years, there've been multiple synthetic, cheaper alternatives. Some brands offer essentially co-insurance, so the cost drops; my test strips had these. A box of 200 lists for $180; I think my net was $45. That said, anything related to drug prices can be a tipping-point issue for the people involved. Medical costs generally, and thus drug prices specifically, are huge for us older folk. A flat refusal will be grounds for voter pushback against the 'pubs...but those who vote that way, probably vote anti-'pub regardless. It's not that likely to change that many votes.

I wonder if some of these changes were encouraged by ESPN. They only need 2 crews for the regionals, and they don't need unique crews for the First Four games. It also makes for easier logistics, by and large, for the NCAA. Note...not necessarily the teams, but who cares about the teams? They're just the tools.

My blood sugar levels do not find certain of these recent videos amusing in the slightest...........