Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[unclevlad]

Or a variant....there are 2 types of people in this world, those who agree with me, and idiots.

[tkdguy]

On 10/19/2023 at 4:05 PM, Old Man said:

Seen in a political discussion on another forum:

 

 

 

 

[tkdguy]

 

[dmjalund]

The NRA is on the side of the gun manufacturers, so are against home made guns.

[DShomshak]

All Things Considered: Hamas blames the explosion at the Gaza hospital on an Israeli airstrike. Israel blames it on a misfired rocket from Islamic Jihad. Some outside analysts study the publicly-available evidence and find both claims dubious.

 

https://www-cf.npr.org/2023/10/23/1208061552/what-new-analysis-shows-about-the-gaza-hospital-explosion

 

Dean Shomshak

[Pattern Ghost]

I didn't see much journalistic rigor in that NPR article, TBH. All that's presented as evidence against the Israeli story is a Doppler shift analysis? We have video of the rocket, for example, that's publicly available and seems to support Israel's narrative, that a rocket burned out, and fell. The crater, burn patterns and exterior building damage also seem to support this. I'd like to see an expert analysis of the same evidence presented by Israel, to see if it holds up to independent analysis. So, we're left with weighing all of the visual evidence against a Doppler analysis by an unnamed source whose bias we can't research.

 

Israel also presented audio evidence from alleged audio transmissions between two Islamic Jihad (IIRC) who are discussing the failed rocket strike. That's something that could (and should) be analyzed for authenticity, though it's not from a "publicly available" source.

 

According to this CNN article analyzing the blast, the rocket was fired from the South. It's worth a read. 

 

Edit: Relevant quote from the linked article:

 

"A leading US acoustic expert, who did not have permission to speak publicly from their university, analyzed the sound waveform from the video and concluded that, while there were changes in the sound frequency, indicating that the object was in motion, there was no directional information that could be gleaned from it."

 

Sorry for the negative reply, but I think it's important to try to look at all of the information received on the key events in this conflict as objectively as possible, especially since objectivity in the matter has been historically difficult to come by.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Pattern Ghost

[Ternaugh]

And Jenna Ellis makes four:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/jenna-ellis-former-trump-lawyer-pleads-guilty-georgia-election-interfe-rcna121886

[DShomshak]

12 hours ago, Pattern Ghost said:

Sorry for the negative reply, but I think it's important to try to look at all of the information received on the key events in this conflict as objectively as possible, especially since objectivity in the matter has been historically difficult to come by.

 

No no, if there's better information, I want to hear of it. I posted because this was the first I'd heard of any acoustic analysis (or that there was any acoustic evidence at all).

 

Thank you for the link.

 

Dean Shomshak

[unclevlad]

And Speaker Nominee #3 is.........................drum roll please..................................Tom Emmer, the current Republican whip.

 

And right now, there's still more than enough Republicans who won't vote for him that there's still no chance he'd win the floor vote.

 

 

[unclevlad]

And the House appears to have wasted another 4-5 days.  NYT is reporting Emmer's nomination is likely dead in the water.  They're smacking him with the RINO tag, and of course, well, forget their votes....

 

And this isn't exactly a surprise...

 

Quote

Some hard-right Republicans consider themselves a distinct political party from their more mainstream, business-minded colleagues, whom they accuse of being in a “uniparty” with Democrats.

 

Oh, except when they leverage the Party to get elected in the first place....

 

AND........10 minutes or so ago....Emmer drops out.

[unclevlad]

Local election amusements...

 

Got my absentee ballot Saturday;  it's just local elections.  Filled out Sunday evening.  It's not all that easy to find much about the local candidates, but I found enough...because it's ranked voting, too, so that matters.  Dropped off yesterday.

 

And today?  Got a text message that I hadn't voted.  Yeah, fine, the absentee wouldn't be processed......but if this showed access to the list who'd voted, BEFORE the balloting was closed?  Not cool, IMO.  If it was a blind shot...more like a general annoyance.

 

The amusing thing is...it was from the candidate I put as my LAST choice. 

I'm not sure if it's more damaging to vote someone #7...or not at all.  But I kinda like making the firmer rejection.    

[Cancer]

Here, the city has elections, and there's a trio of unopposed judges running for re-election.  Still waiting on the local info.

[unclevlad]

A very nice, functional "definition" of insanity is doing the same thing, the same way, over and over again, and expecting a different result.

 

The Republicans are proving they're insane by that measure.

 

Just now, they're going for candidate #4...Mike Johnson of Louisiana.  He was the longest-lasting challenger to Emmer this morning.  But...he's described as the architect of the strategy to not certify the election.  Forget ANY Democratic support, on that alone.  Not Freedom Caucus, but an avowed supporter of Jordan, which'll turn off many moderates;  they may well think they're just handing Jordan the gavel.

 

From NYT:
 

Quote

“Our conference has been essentially at war with itself,” said Representative Brandon Williams of New York, who represents a district won by President Biden. He called the situation “disheartening” and reminiscent of the movie “Groundhog Day.”

 

Sounds about right.

 

There apparently is an up-or-down vote in the caucus right now, about whether people would vote for him on the floor should he be formally nominated.  

 

EDIT:  CNN is reporting that vote's done...but what it means, isn't clear.  Only 3 voted Present...effectively the No vote...but there were 22 not present or not voting.  So...while Johnson is going to take this to the floor tomorrow, I can't see that it's a done deal.

[unclevlad]

So the House finally named a Speaker.

 

Unfortunately, it's Johnson.  Which means the hard right won.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/mike-johnson-house-speaker.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5Uw.foCa.PsS8VYklud-3&smid=url-share

[unclevlad]

And....Engoron fines Trump for comments again.  $10K this time.

[Lord Liaden]

7 hours ago, unclevlad said:

So the House finally named a Speaker.

 

Unfortunately, it's Johnson.  Which means the hard right won.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/mike-johnson-house-speaker.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5Uw.foCa.PsS8VYklud-3&smid=url-share

 

Matt Gaetz is right (never thought I'd write that), the extremists have taken control of the Republican Party, at least in the House of Representatives. Not that it matters, none of the "legislation" they're likely to pass will have much chance of making it through the Senate, let alone past a Biden veto. But it does mean that the House may be ineffectual until the 2024 election, assuming Johnson even stays in the office that long.

 

Mind you, I don't think that matters to that faction of the GOP. All they seem to want is to posture for their base of support, apparently under the assumption that socia-media Likes means their "policies" are popular, and that they'll translate to votes.

[unclevlad]

My take is that the moderates were given an impossible dilemma...because the extremists held the entire House hostage.  Either capitulate to a hard-right-acceptable Speaker, or keep the House tied up.  The extremists were never going to allow anyone outside their sphere to hold the gavel.  I suspect they're doing what they *wanted* to do in January.

 

And while having a Speaker is necessary...yeah, I'm still expecting at least a partial shutdown.  I simply can't see this House, and the extremists, NOT throwing in poison pill after poison pill, or gutting what they don't want/trying to cram the things they do want (in terms of spending/tax cuts) into the bills.

 

 

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

My take is that the moderates were given an impossible dilemma...because the extremists held the entire House hostage.  Either capitulate to a hard-right-acceptable Speaker, or keep the House tied up.  The extremists were never going to allow anyone outside their sphere to hold the gavel.

 

Whereas the "moderates" were okay with holding their nose and voting an insurrectionist into the role of Speaker of the House.  Which makes me wonder how "moderate" they really are.

 

Quote

And while having a Speaker is necessary...yeah, I'm still expecting at least a partial shutdown.  I simply can't see this House, and the extremists, NOT throwing in poison pill after poison pill, or gutting what they don't want/trying to cram the things they do want (in terms of spending/tax cuts) into the bills.

 

The only reason we didn't get a shutdown three weeks ago is because McCarthy tried to pull a fast one on the Democrats and miscalculated.  Gaetz is on record as saying that a House that does absolutely nothing is fine with him.  Because his goal is to sabotage the federal government, and a shutdown is an effective way to accomplish that (while simultaneously affecting Biden's popularity numbers).

[Lord Liaden]

If the "moderate" Republicans had the guts to collaborate with the Democrats in choosing a Speaker, they would have rendered the extremists irrelevant, and taken a big step toward rehabilitating the image of their party. Sure, that would probably cost them hard-line votes, but it could gain them moderate conservatives and independents. And of course, it would be the responsible thing to do.

 

But the GOP are gutless, too afraid of being out-primaried by extremists. So they capitulated to the MAGA faction, and are now their hostages. They may indeed win primaries this way, but I predict the stink of this whole fiasco will sink them in the general. They can't win many election races appealing only to the hard right, America's demographics are seriously against them there.

[DShomshak]

The reasoning I've heard is that while Republicans from districts Biden won might have less fear of being primaried out, they must expect they'd replace any support from the national party with active hostility. Certainly lose any financial backing, increasing the chance of losing in the general.

 

I still think it gutless. If they worked really hard for their constituents, they might still have a decent chance of winning, forst against whatever hard-right loon the national party propped up against them and then in the general. If necessary, declare themselves independent -- IIRC the House and Senate have a few who caucus with one party or another without claiming membership.

 

The analyst on ATC said that Johnson has, somehow, avoided making any real enemies in any of the GOP factions. Beyond that, his success may have been the result of sheer exhaustion.

 

At leaast he spoke one nice sentence about looking forward to working with Hakeem Jeffries, which is more grace than I would expect from, say, Jordan, Gaetz or Boebert. And more basic political and media sense. We shall see how much real cooperation actually develops.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Cygnia]

Another mass shooting, this time in Maine.

 

Manhunt underway after Maine mass shootings

[Hermit]

20 hours ago, unclevlad said:

So the House finally named a Speaker.

 

Unfortunately, it's Johnson.  Which means the hard right won.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/mike-johnson-house-speaker.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5Uw.foCa.PsS8VYklud-3&smid=url-share

 

The more I learn about this guy the more I despair.

[unclevlad]

10 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

If the "moderate" Republicans had the guts to collaborate with the Democrats in choosing a Speaker, they would have rendered the extremists irrelevant, and taken a big step toward rehabilitating the image of their party. Sure, that would probably cost them hard-line votes, but it could gain them moderate conservatives and independents. And of course, it would be the responsible thing to do.

 

But the GOP are gutless, too afraid of being out-primaried by extremists. So they capitulated to the MAGA faction, and are now their hostages. They may indeed win primaries this way, but I predict the stink of this whole fiasco will sink them in the general. They can't win many election races appealing only to the hard right, America's demographics are seriously against them there.

 

That's the third leg...elect a Democrat, cut their political throats.

 

I can't call them gutless, because they WOULD be out...quite likely permanently.  Likely tossed out of the Republican caucus.  There were NO good options;  there were no bad ones.  The only options on the table were *terrible*.  It was complete blackmail by the extremists.

 

I think the point to remember here is that 147 Republicans voted to nullify the election.  The moderates have been marginalized since this Congress began.  Voting in a Democratic Speaker would have fractured the House Republicans...which, I'll grant, is already true, and stripping off the veneer of "one party" would likely be the healthiest thing to do.  BUT, it's a huge step, and there's a real possibility it would've forced the moderates out *completely* and handed over the name to the MAGA faction.  And there's no guarantee any of this would work.  The extremists would still fight tooth and nail through every stage of the process.  

 

 

[Lord Liaden]

5 hours ago, Cygnia said:

Another mass shooting, this time in Maine.

 

Manhunt underway after Maine mass shootings

 

This has become routine.

[unclevlad]

Just saw this.  No, it saddens me beyond words, but the Maine shooting is NOT the most recent mass shooting event.

https://apnews.com/article/five-killed-sampson-county-north-carolina-17223deefaae3d1011721743a31120d5

 

Interesting chart here:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/us/how-many-mass-shootings-2023-dg-xpn/index.html