What kind of aliens?

[Nyrath]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

You do realize that Bob was quoting an old Spiritual, which in turn was paraphrasing the Bible?

{snip}

But having said that, speculating, I'm inclined to think that a species that does not overcome those "primal urges" will not make it out of their home system.

Oh, yes, I found it fairly obvious that the Dean of Science Fiction was quoting an old Spiritual. The slang phrasing is a dead giveaway.

 

However, the good book has been around for almost two thousand years, yet warfare has shown no signs of becoming extinct. It does not seem to be a good solution to the problem of eliminating the primal urges. You will note that Heinlein in that same quote is skeptical of that particular solution.

Nevertheless, let's assume that the human race manages to balance birth and death, just right to fit its own planets, and thereby becomes peaceful. What happens?

 

Soon (about next Wednesday) the Bugs move in, kill off this breed which "ain'ta gonna study war no more" and the universe forgets us.

 

As I mentioned before, Hal Clemet seems to have put his finger on the basic problem.

http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3t.html

(scroll down to "Chips on distant shoulders")

 

Read his explanation, but it boils down to a choice between suffering from outbreaks of war or becoming not human anymore. Since the majority of people would object to being altered in the manner described by Clemet, matters seem to be at an impasse.

[Nyrath]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Holes in his logic? I can't even find any logic for there to be holes in. He makes a bunch of guesses and then constructs an argument around them. He may be right, he may be wrong - without any real facts, it's impossible to be sure.

 

It's entirely possible that to an advanced spacefaring species, a near lightspeed missile holds all the danger of a spitball, in which case the basic thesis of the first part of his first argument wifts off like so much steam. Or not. Who's to know?

True. But in such cases science can deal with probabilities. As in "of all the alien species we make contact with, what percentage of them will try to exterminate us?"

 

The point is, what probability of the extinction of the entire human race are you prepared to accept? With each new race contacted, it's another round of Russian Roulette.

[BlackSword]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

True. But in such cases science can deal with probabilities. As in "of all the alien species we make contact with' date=' what percentage of them will try to exterminate us?"[/i']

The problem with this logic is that he applies his own logic to an alien species. Ie, one of his base assumptions is that anyone civilization advanced enough to have space travel will have come to the same conclusion, hence by his logic, all alien species will try to exterminate us. So by circular logic, we should destroy them first.

The point is, what probability of the extinction of the entire human race are you prepared to accept? With each new race contacted, it's another round of Russian Roulette.

Currently we're at 100% chance of extinction. Just give us time, war, famine, disease, asteroid, or the sun burning out. As long as we stay on this rock the human species is guarenteed to cease to be (unless we evolve into some energy form).

[Nyrath]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

The problem with this logic is that he applies his own logic to an alien species. Ie' date=' one of his base assumptions is that anyone civilization advanced enough to have space travel will have come to the same conclusion, hence by his logic, [b']all[/b] alien species will try to exterminate us. So by circular logic, we should destroy them first.

Oh, but the logic can be made even more basic.

 

The chance of an alien species exterminating us is greater than zero.

The chance of a dead alien species exterminating us is zero (or very close to it. Less than a live species at any rate.).

It is logical to attempt to minimize the chance of one's species being exterminated.

 

Therefore:

 

The logical thing to do upon discovering the existence of an alien species is to attempt to safely exterminate them.

[Markdoc]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

True. But in such cases science can deal with probabilities. As in "of all the alien species we make contact with' date=' what percentage of them will try to exterminate us?"[/i']

 

The point is, what probability of the extinction of the entire human race are you prepared to accept? With each new race contacted, it's another round of Russian Roulette.

 

The probablity assessment goes like this.

 

"No data. No conclusion is possible."

 

As for "what probability of the extinction of the entire human race are you prepared to accept"

 

The answer is "Some". After all, we already acccept the risk that environmental degradation may irreversibly alter our climate. We know the race could be trashed by a really big meteor but stubbornly refuse to build anti-meteor defences and so on and so forth.

 

Humans deal with risks and high stakes all the time - in fact, we *don't* attempt to insulate ourselves from all risks - hence my scepticism.

 

cheers, Mark

[Markdoc]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Oh, but the logic can be made even more basic.

 

The chance of an alien species exterminating us is greater than zero.

The chance of a dead alien species exterminating us is zero (or very close to it. Less than a live species at any rate.).

It is logical to attempt to minimize the chance of one's species being exterminated.

 

Therefore:

 

The logical thing to do upon discovering the existence of an alien species is to attempt to safely exterminate them.

 

So I assume you attempt to kill every person you meet? After all the chance that any person you meet is a homicidal maniac bent on your destruction is greater than zero. Therefore your "logic" must presumably lead to the same conclusion.

 

Of course it doesn't - it's simply a series of fallacies strung together - not logic.

 

cheers, Mark

[Guest Schwarzwald]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Another issue goes like this:

 

"If we don't attack these sentients, they may or may not attack us. If we attack them and exterminate them, we are safer IF they had plans against us. If we attack them and fail to completely exterminate them, the survivors will almost certainly attack us in retaliation.

 

Therefore UNLESS we can be absolutely certain of exterminating them, we may be safer not attacking them and provoking retaliation. Until/unless we develop a 100% certain plan to exterminate them we should observe them and determine if they are hostile or not."

[David Johnston]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

And of course the whole "get them before they get us" strategy implicitly assumes that there are only two parties, that there is no third or fourth party who fear for their own existence upon discovering someone with a taste for pre-emptive genocide on little or no provocation.

[Captain Emu]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

I think both cases are generalised too much. An alien race isn't a single entity - their governing authorities would not necessarily follow the same policy from year to year, let alone all the time. Indivduals within the race would vary between extremes of their racial outlooks.

All in all, I think you would have mixes of both types, and moderates and extremists of both types. Similar to the cultures we have on earth.

 

This has been my huge problem with aliens in most fiction - they are almost always depicted as homogenous cultures.

 

Though I will admit that I beleive there are likely to be some rather bizarre and truely alien beings out there, I can't help but think that some basic rules of nature are going to exist anywhere you find living creatures. They may diverge from our Earlthy norms, but I still think that at their core they will still be definable within the basic understandings of natural order.

 

On the other hand, it may come to be that we here on Earth are one of those oddities of the universe and that elsewhere, things follow a much different course. Heck, this may even be quite likely if "Earthly" planets are as rare as they may seem in the cosmos.

 

If I had to make a prediction, it's going to be that any race we run into will be an absolute crap-shoot. I do think, however, that any race we run into, isn't going to like what they find. No matter how innocent the encounter there is likely to be some hothead or paranoid bastard who's going to take it the wrong way and start an interstellar incident.

 

Humanity is a hostile animal, even when we preach peace we do it so agressively that it practically defeats the peaceful intentions of the gesture.

[Lord Liaden]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Why not? OUR ecosystem is dominated by organisms living in symbiosis or commensalism. Predators are the exception, not the rule, and simple biological energy analysis suggests that patern is likely to be ominant.

 

cheers, Mark

 

Fair enough. I was thinking "dominance" as more along the lines of "top of the food chain," but I take your meaning.

[austenandrews]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

This has been my huge problem with aliens in most fiction - they are almost always depicted as homogenous cultures.

"He comes from a planet of bounty hunters."

[CrosshairCollie]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

"He comes from a planet of bounty hunters."

 

Then again, you get that in a lot of alternate-setting literature.

 

"Gruff, taciturn, likes gold and drinking, it's a dwarf. Snotty, gay, likes poetry and frolicking, it's an elf."

[David Johnston]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

This has been my huge problem with aliens in most fiction - they are almost always depicted as homogenous cultures.

 

 

To be fair, in most science fiction _humans_ are generally depicted as a homogenous culture as well.

[Lord Liaden]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Actually, if you posit a race which has achieved general peace and unity within its own society, "homogenous" would be a reasonable development. Different beliefs and practices are the most divisive features of the real world today; some have argued that creating a homogenous culture would be a prerequisite to an effective world government.

[BlackSword]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

This has been my huge problem with aliens in most fiction - they are almost always depicted as homogenous cultures.

It might also be homogenous to an outside culture.

[austenandrews]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Why not? OUR ecosystem is dominated by organisms living in symbiosis or commensalism. Predators are the exception' date=' not the rule, and simple biological energy analysis suggests that patern is likely to be ominant.[/quote']

At the same time, among the most intelligent animals predators are the rule, not the exception.

 

(Depending, again, on how you define "intelligent.")

[Nyrath]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

"He comes from a planet of bounty hunters."

SF author Jerry Pournelle describes the problem this way: "It was raining on Mongo that morning."

[Markdoc]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

At the same time, among the most intelligent animals predators are the rule, not the exception.

 

(Depending, again, on how you define "intelligent.")

 

Chimps and gorillas are predators? The commonest species of chimps might be, if you pushed the definition I suppose, bonabos don't seem to be and gorillas aren't. Of the three smartest species on the planet, only one has marked predatory habits and it's an omnivore. A vegetarian, non-predatory sentience seems quite possible to me.

 

Africa has plenty of big predators, but elephants don't get eaten until they're about ready to keel over of old age (if then) - and absolutely dominate their landscape. The "top of the food chain" guys get out of their way when they see them coming.

 

I think this whole "predator" thing has evolved because *we* can pretty safely be described that way, so we assume that since it's us, that's the default.

 

cheers, Mark

[Cancer]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

(Depending' date=' again, on how you define "intelligent.")[/quote']

Indeed. The old conundrum goes: "Define intelligence without describing yourself." I think that's generalizeable to any heirarchical structure where the heirarchical trait is being being described by those at the top of the heirarchy.

[austenandrews]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Chimps and gorillas are predators? The commonest species of chimps might be' date=' if you pushed the definition I suppose, bonabos don't seem to be and gorillas aren't. Of the three smartest species on the planet, only one has marked predatory habits and it's an omnivore. A vegetarian, non-predatory sentience seems quite possible to me.[/quote']

Common chimps hunt. Bonobos, not so much. Gorillas are entirely herbivorous. Of course humans are predators. So we're 50-50 among the apes you mention (40% among hominids if you include orangutans, which are somewhat like bonobos).

 

Now start naming other "intelligent" animals and we'll see how predators shake out. How many species of carnivores and omnivores are there - dolphins, canines, felines, cephalopods - for every elephant and gorilla? Or to look at it another way, by observation intelligence seems to imply a certain "comfort zone" where being eaten is not the primary concern. Elephants qualify by size, but predators are certainly more common in that regard.

 

That's my point - if we just look at raw statistics, the odds of an intelligent species being a predator are pretty darn good. Not that I think raw statistics, or even the notion of "predator v.s. non-predator" will necessarily apply to any given alien inteligence we encounter.

 

I think this whole "predator" thing has evolved because *we* can pretty safely be described that way, so we assume that since it's us, that's the default.

Which was my other point. Much depends on how we define "intelligence." That's a goalpost too often moved specifically to exclude everything that's not human.

[austenandrews]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Indeed. The old conundrum goes: "Define intelligence without describing yourself." I think that's generalizeable to any heirarchical structure where the heirarchical trait is being being described by those at the top of the heirarchy.

Exactly. I think vague notions like "intelligent" and "sentient" are essentially meaningless. We need better categories to describe the behavior that those terms dance around.

[David Johnston]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

The predator thing is a red herring. An intelligent herbivore would be no less likely to respond to imagined threats by extirpating the source. You don't fight a deliberate war of annihilation with prey. That's the product of fear, not appetite. Even simple territorial wars that aren't intended to go that far are just as likely to be engaged in by herbivores. They have territorial disputes too. And, although they lack the cognitive faculties to recognise what they are doing as aggression and defense, so do the plants they eat.

[Captain Emu]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

Also keep in mind how many other predatory primates we have in the fossil record or whether or not all our modern day primates were originally hunters or not.

 

I think you can make a case for anything becoming sentient but the odds seem to favor predators because being a predator is hard and requires, in most cases, more up top than the grazers and herders.

[austenandrews]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

I think you can make a case for anything becoming sentient but the odds seem to favor predators because being a predator is hard and requires' date=' in most cases, more up top than the grazers and herders.[/quote']

Maybe alien grass is especially tricksy.

 

But David Johnston's point is spot on - ultimately, all of this is generalizing way too much. I doubt anybody will commit major resources based on that kind of worst-case scenario.

[keithcurtis]

Re: What kind of aliens?

 

The thing is' date=' we don't know whether predation [b']is[/b] "the pattern of life everywhere." Maybe another world's ecosystem would be dominated by organisms living in symbiosis, and that could affect the mentality of any sentient species.

 

Lord "Here come the space communists" Liaden

Just to be clear, when I said

With only earth to go by as a guideline, I believe that alien life would pretty much follow the pattern of life everywhere: eat things that are weaker than you and your kind and hide from/run away from things that are stronger and can eat you.

 

"Eat" being an abstract term.

I was not talking about predation, or even animals. I said "Life". And I specifically said that I meant "eat" as an abstract term, meaning in this case use to your benefit, regardless of whether it is to the other life form's benefit.

Eating plants, domesticating and farming animals for food, enslaving members of your own species, these are all patterns of life. Life consumes life. Now it is possible that aliens would have developed some ethos that genuinely prohibits them from being crappy to one another and by extension, to us. But I don't see any evidence of that from experience.

 

Before anyone comes up with anecdotes of altruism or genuine human kindness, in general our history is littered with barbarous behavior, both as a the human species and as earthly life. Not trying to be a downer here, it's just nature.

 

Keith "On the whole, it's good to be the top of the food chain" Curtis