Super Squirrel Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Repost of the list for your reference: Cyber Hero Danger International Pirate Hero Post-Apocalyptic Hero Swashbuckling Hero The Ultimate Weapon Victorian Hero Weird Conspiracy Hero Western Hero Other Last year, Hero Games did a poll and now we have another poll. The problem is, if DoJ is trying to find public interest for where to go next, they are shooting themselves in the foot. Many of the books mentioned above are similar at least on some level to others. So while Cyber Hero as a title is more appealing out of all of the titles listed; it is not necessarily what would be the best sales wise. The vote is for which title the voter would rather see but gives one choice. In many cases, someone is likely be interested in something similar to their voting selection than something else. The best example on the list is Pirate Hero and Swashbuckling Hero. Pirates and Swashbuckling are not the same thing. However there is nothing that says that if you can't get Pirate Hero, you can't simply take Swashbuckling Hero and apply to rules to the sea. Vice-versa, if you really want to play Swashbuckling Hero it would be much easier to take Pirate Hero and apply accordingly. However, because they are similar the vote is about which of the two you prefer to recieve. I think a much better approach would be instead to take a poll on what KIND of book you want next. Then, knowing what kind of book, DoJ could go for the actual book they think would be a better release based on either their opinion, feedback in the thread, or even a second poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Hiemforth Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed I think that's a good point, SS. I'd also add that it might give them more useful information if they asked which books (plural) from the list that the responder would buy if they were published, rather than just asking which single one the responder wants most. Why? Let's say you're asking 10 people what they want for dinner, because you're trying to decide what dish would go over the best. 6 of the people really like beef, also like chicken, and really don't like pork. The other 4 really like pork, also like chicken, and really don't like beef. So what dish should you serve? Chicken, obviously. Everyone likes it. But if you only ask your prospective guests which dish they like the most, then you're going to get 6 votes for beef and 4 votes for pork. The question isn't which potential book is the very favorite option of the most people... the real question is which potential book would be purchased by the most people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rapier Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed the real question is which potential book would be purchased by the most people. Purchase!?! You mean like spend money? YUCKO!! >8) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radioKAOS Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Post-Apocalyptic Hero is the one I would buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thia Halmades Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed I'm not a genre setting guy, I'm more of an ultimate guy, but given that, I'd still purchase Victorian HERO and Cyber HERO if it gave me the rules I needed (or at least helpful suggestions) to do new and interesting things. However, I think Josh has a great point here, speaking purely from a psych standpoint. I often debate with the g/f between what she has asked me (the literal question, which of these books do you want?) and what she meant to ask me (of these books, which would you be most likely to buy?) I think the difference would be between an open (box) poll and a closed (circle) poll. If the poll were multiple choice we'd have a clearer idea of the reality of people's purchasing trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MitchellS Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Last year' date=' Hero Games did a poll and now we have another poll. The problem is, if DoJ is trying to find public interest for where to go next, they are shooting themselves in the foot.[/quote'] It should be pointed out that the question being asked is which book should be the Gen Con release, not which book they should publish. It is very possible 2 or 3 of those book, or more, will be published in 2007. When asking what should be the "big" Gen Con release the choice should be something which'll garner a lot of convention attention and get a lot of con sales [the trip to the con must be paid for by the sales at the con, with hopefully some profit left over]. Ultimately I don't think any of those choices will garner a lot of con attention [and none of them would sell more than the 150 copies Pulp Hero sold]. I don't think any of those books are good choices myself. They are all too niche and don't have a broad enough appeal to Hero gamers so that the books can guarantee to have good con sales. Convention books should be the ones which are attractive to the largest number of potential buyers. If 50% of your customers play Champions [with the other 50% divided amongst the other genres] then the book which is the best bet for con sales should be a Champions book [possibly something genre and with the largest possible appeal to all Champions players instead of something CU specific]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thia Halmades Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Did you post this on the thread about which book should be the next release? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supreme Serpent Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed If 50% of your customers play Champions [with the other 50% divided amongst the other genres] then the book which is the best bet for con sales should be a Champions book [possibly something genre and with the largest possible appeal to all Champions players instead of something CU specific]. Something like a big packet of 1" scale folding hexmaps of things like a bank, an office building, hotel, a villainous lair or two, stronghold, a supermarket, warehouse, industrial site (like a chemical plant or steel foundry) and things like that? To increase cross-genre appeal, have the flip side have a fantasy inn, a manor house, high-tech something, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean Waters Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed I'm realy keen on subtitles: whatever book you put out I think it ought to be recognisable by a Hero hook, but also have a 'look and feel' name of its own. the best example is Champions: the defining book (for many) of the Hero line, and (despite the fact that superher roleplaying is not the most popular genre) the best selling product line. A single 'subtitle' name for the book would give far more feel, IMO: having 'Hero' on the front cover anywhere will attract those already converted. I know this has been discussed before, and it is a bit off track but I thought it should be mentioned. I do agree with Super Squirrel: I voted for Swashbuckling/Pirate Hero, making the point in the post on the poll that they could almost be the same (only slightly bigger) book. The other think I would like to see is Western Hero, but I had the 4th ed book and I really think that was a missed opportunity. It suffered from something that a lot of Hero books can do: (and I know this is virtually nonsensical givent hat it is a generic type system) but they were too generic. I would rather have seen colours nailed to the mast (back to Pirate Hero then....) and say 'Right, for this game THIS is how we are going to do it'. The big black book is the toolkit. I think the genre books should be a finished product not a set of genre tools. Back to Western Hero there were no real rules for gunfights, psychological factors and so on (modified PRE attack rules?) and that is the single biggest identifier for Western adventures. Instead we had Hero with a Western slant (stat blocks for single action revolvers and mules). Hero is NOT the best game for accurate simulation: there probably is not enough detail to REALLY model the difference between different firearms and so on, and I almost always feel we start in the wrong place: we start with Hero and then add genre elements. What we SHOULD do is start with a bunch of Westerns and extract the flavour then build that using recognisably Hero systems. Extended rules for roping and riding, gunfights, bar-room brawls, not even options...rules for the game. OK I appreciate that these things were covered (to an extent) but it very much felt like 'another Hero book'. Now you take something like Fantasy Hero and you've got enough sales etc to do specific genre books (Valdorian/Turkanian etc). With the ones on this list you probably won't, so I' thinking the genre book has to be a complete presentation of a playable game world. Finally I think that there ought to be a small rules section so that people who don't own Hero can play from a genre book: not, perhaps, the way we used to do it - complete generation and game rules (which was a waste of money for those who already owned Hero poducts) but a 5-10 page primer. I think a lot of people who might be intereetsed in the product could be put off by the 'Requires 5ER' tag. Oh how much is that ? $45......I say this becasue I might get new genre books out of curiosity but I'm not at university and more and can't afford to spend 3 days a week roleplaying: my 3 hour session once a week is it for now so I am not buying as many new rule systems as I did - I'm sticking to the rules - and genres - I know. Anyway, sorry, venting. Sean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thia Halmades Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Actually, Floating Head has a point here - "Turakian Age" has a definate feel of its own, distinct from "Fantasy HERO" - one is evoctive. It follows genre tropes. The other is vaguely descriptive without clarifying anything much at all in terms of what it is. It doesn't reach out - the title lacks a hook. Dugeons & Dragons - we all know what it is. The name rather says it all. However, I can't think of a better way to put it, either. Here's a good example though: Instead of releasing "D20 Environmental Book: Wind & Waves" they released Stormwrack, with high profile cover art. Not "Dag, it's Cold" but Frostburn. The titles are evocative of the setting. Points to the floating head, he has a great point here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roland Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed The problem Super Squirrel points out here is not unique to Hero polls - it is inherent to democracy. According to Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, it is impossible to devise a voting scheme that will always meet all the criteria one would demand of such a scheme. There is an entire sub-field of economics called public choice that looks at collective decision making. Public choice economists have found all sorts of anomalies like Derek's example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Squirrel Posted January 11, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed The problem Super Squirrel points out here is not unique to Hero polls - it is inherent to democracy. According to Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, it is impossible to devise a voting scheme that will always meet all the criteria one would demand of such a scheme. There is an entire sub-field of economics called public choice that looks at collective decision making. Public choice economists have found all sorts of anomalies like Derek's example. Yes, well I can hopefully help the company more than I can help the country in getting changes made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Squirrel Posted January 11, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed It should be pointed out that the question being asked is which book should be the Gen Con release' date=' not which book they should publish. It is very possible 2 or 3 of those book, or more, will be published in 2007. [/quote']It doesn't really change my point though. Even if Swashbuckling Hero and Pirate Hero are going to be released within a month of each other, they still pull away from unrelated categories. If the poll was: "What is your favorite animal on this list?" and the choices included, Pugs, German Shepards, Dobbermins, Great Danes, and Cats you are going to see Cats win. It doesn't matter what the nature of the poll is, if you have two many similar voting options, a non-similar voting option is far more likely to win even if another might have been more popular if it was better constructed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Hiemforth Posted January 11, 2006 Report Share Posted January 11, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Convention books should be the ones which are attractive to the largest number of potential buyers. If 50% of your customers play Champions [with the other 50% divided amongst the other genres] then the book which is the best bet for con sales should be a Champions book [possibly something genre and with the largest possible appeal to all Champions players instead of something CU specific].But big conventions are also the best places to attract attention from gamers other than your existing customers. Champions products will do well enough whether they launch at a big con or not, because lots of people already play Champions. For other books, you can give the book exposure to gamers who might not otherwise encounter it. For example, I love Conspiracy games. I'll pick up almost any Conspiracy-related RPG stuff if it seems half-decent. So if I wasn't a Hero gamer, and they launched Weird Conspiracy Hero at a convention I attended, I'd buy it in a second. But otherwise, I might never see it (especially if my FLGS doesn't stock a lot of Hero Games products). It's a tough call... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Force Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed If the poll was: "What is your favorite animal on this list?" and the choices included' date=' Pugs, German Shepards, Dobbermins, Great Danes, and Cats you are going to see Cats win. It doesn't matter what the nature of the poll is, if you have two many similar voting options, a non-similar voting option is far more likely to win even if another might have been more popular if it was better constructed.[/quote'] Wow. This almost sounds like presidential election math! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghost-angel Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Polls are meaningless. Rep is meaningless. Post Count is meaningless. It's all meangingless!!!! *curls into small existential ball and hides in the corner* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Hiemforth Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Small existential balls are meaningless. So are corners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed So are corners. Not if you're being pursued by Hounds of Tindalos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghost-angel Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed we're doomed. meainginglessly doomed no less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thia Halmades Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed My meaninglessness is less relevant than yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Galeotti Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed I think a much better approach would be instead to take a poll on what KIND of book you want next. Then' date=' knowing what kind of book, DoJ could go for the actual book they think would be a better release based on either their opinion, feedback in the thread, or even a second poll.[/quote'] Fair enough, but I can't help but feel rather uncomfortable about outsiders' attempts to second-guess DoJ. First of all, any such poll is just one element of the information they consider when deciding what books to go for, alongside sales, market trends, sampling comments on these and other boards, talking to distributors and retailers, etc. Secondly, presuming that DoJ are not fools, then the poll reflects what they want it to do. It may well be -- and I have no idea if this is true -- that putting Pirates and Swashbucklers as separate entries against each other was a deliberate decision precisely to see if any future combined book should emphasise one aspect more than another. As someone who has done some polling in the past, I would note that they are often constructed to answer multiple and sometimes implicit questions. As I say, I have no idea of the actual motivation behind the way the poll was set up. I suppose that as a lurker on these boards I was slightly taken aback that quite such a long thread could develop on the presupposition that DoJ must have got it wrong. Considering that they have not just survived but thrived in a very tough market place, one might suppose they have some idea what they are doing... All the best Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Hiemforth Posted January 12, 2006 Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Hi Mark - I don't think it's a matter of thinking that DoJ are fools, or got it "wrong," but rather just an expression of Herodom Assembled's irresistable need to kibitz and comment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Squirrel Posted January 12, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed I don't think they are doing anything wrong. I think they could be doing it better is all. Truth be told, they know what sells better than we do because they see the sales figures and we don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zornwil Posted January 17, 2006 Report Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed I think the point of the poll was to create the dialogue in the thread, though, not really to look at numbers in the poll aside from a rough idea. But SS raises a good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susano Posted January 17, 2006 Report Share Posted January 17, 2006 Re: Why the "Big Release" Polls Are Flawed Wow. This almost sounds like presidential election math! So George Bush won the election 'cause all the other candidates were dogs??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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