Pariah Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 Urban Meyer fired: A timeline of the former national championship head coach's tumultuous tenure with Jaguars He crammed more crazy stuff into eleven months (almost exactly) than a lot of folks can do in a decade. Logan D. Hurricanes and pinecone 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan D. Hurricanes Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 unclevlad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starlord Posted December 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 56 minutes ago, Logan.1179 said: Jaguars increase from 3.5 point favorite to 5 point favorite AFTER firing their head coach unclevlad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan D. Hurricanes Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 Huh. Of course the Texans are the only team the Jags would be a favorite against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 Sure, but the big aspect is, they're considered *stronger* because he's gone. Well, not entirely true. Could simply mean more people are happy to bet on them now that their kidney stone's been flushed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan D. Hurricanes Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 50 minutes ago, unclevlad said: Sure, but the big aspect is, they're considered *stronger* because he's gone. Well, not entirely true. Could simply mean more people are happy to bet on them now that their kidney stone's been flushed. Classic addition by subtraction. Also... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Logan.1179 said: Huh. Of course the Texans are the only team the Jags would be a favorite against. This game actually has some implications for next year's draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 So ... who will tank the hardest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan D. Hurricanes Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 Texans have no reason to win, but I think the Jags will actually try this week. Of course, Texans handed us our asses in game 1 of the season, so there's a little tint of vengeance, too. But then the Texans just got rated the worst team in the league by FPI, so they may feel they have something to prove. In other words I have no idea. My money's on the Jags, but that's just stubborn loyalty more than confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pariah Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 Bills fans donate over $20,000 to visual impairment charity to tease 'blind' officials from Buccaneers game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 16, 2021 Report Share Posted December 16, 2021 Were I to bet, I'd definitely take the Jags and give the points. It's completely meaningless for the Texans, draft position notwithstanding, but it's no longer meaningless for the Jags, I suspect. As noted, there's the week 1 loss, but perhaps even more, their problem's gone. The Texans' #1 issue is still hanging over their head; they've got no reason to think their front office is going to fix anything. Jags may be able to play loose, but not the Texans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pariah Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 So this makes three fourth and short situations that the Chargers have failed to convert. But hey, at least they're consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Then to top it off, they fumble on 3rd and goal. Bizarre game. Oh, wait, it's TNF. If the Chargers hold on, up 8 now...they and the Pats become the biggest winners. The Chargers will be favored to win their last 3...Texans, Burros, Raiders. Middle game's at home. They've got the tie break, assuming the win, by sweeping KC. The Pats get the inside track for the #1 seed and the bye, altho they do have the Colts and Bill before a Florida vacation. The other big loser in principle is the Steelers; it would've helped *some* for the Chargers to lose. Of course, the joker in the deck is gonna be sheer availability. This is a really ugly list: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/covid-19-list-tracker-for-players-nfl-policies/ Make sure to note the right column...the date players came off the list. Because this list is for the entire season, and many players have been taken off. But there are, as of today, 10 teams with 5 or more players on the list. That almost certainly will change by Sunday tho. Update on Donald Parham...undergoing tests, MRI, listed in stable condition. Saw the replay. Man, you do NOT want to see the head bounce the way his did. Not sure the helmet does any good there, if the top of the spine is what's moving badly. EDIT: quick note on the availability point. Eagles have gone from -4 to -9.5; Browns have gone from -5 to +1.5, and that might get worse because their backup QB got put onto the list. Several other games have seen fairly sizable line shifts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Oops. That pretty much slams the door on the division.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pariah Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 This game should serve as an example of why common sense is better than analytics. Kick the [REDACTED] chip shot field goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 49 minutes ago, Pariah said: This game should serve as an example of why common sense is better than analytics. Kick the [REDACTED] chip shot field goal. It's more complex than that. On the early plays, the score wasn't a factor. The issue is how to maximize your short-term expected value...not your immediate EV. The kick is 95%; there were no factors arguing against it (generally the weather, sometimes lack of confidence in the kicker). Conversely, if you kick and miss, there's no bonus to your short-term EV because the ball goes out to the 20. You can't heave the other team buried. Going for the TD has a probability of working. If it works, it's nearly 7 points...the extra point has a 95% chance as well. If it *doesn't* work, the other team is left buried at its own goal line, and there's a short-term EV bonus...a safety, a turnover (a la the pass that got batted and picked, after the Chargers' fumble), a 3-and-out forcing a punt giving you the ball back in plus territory. The biggest single issue is, what is the probability of scoring? This is where I think coaches LIE to themselves. ALL the time. They think they're geniuses, and they'll make the magic call. Of course it'll work. They aren't analytical; they're professional optimists. The "analysts" commit a different mistake...the overall probability of a similar play working, is NOT necessarily the best estimator of the success probability. The styles of offense and defense matter greatly. Familiarity matters; does the other team know your tendencies? Your self-knowledge matters...are YOU predictable? Similarly, do you have the right kind of defense, and are playing against the right kind of offense, to capitalize on defense and realize the potential value of leaving them buried? I'll also say: I've seen a ton of games where teams kicked 2, 3, even 4 short FGs and lost, maybe 21-19. Chip shot FGs have *also* been shown to be not great results. So...the play where Parham got hurt, it was 4th and goal at the 5. I *don't* like those odds of working at all, and the short-term EV is lowered a bit. I think it better to kick. End of the first half, it was 4th and 1. Play SHOULD have worked, it was there...but it wasn't executed. That's part of your evaluation, part of the probability of success estimate. Here, yeah, the scoring probability *in general* should be pretty high. Not sure I like the play call tho...but it should've worked so I think this one's OK. Note that there was no potential extra value because the half was gonna end. Another aspect on the Chargers' side was what we saw in the 4th. The Chiefs offense can be SCARY, SCARY good. FGs weren't likely to cut it. Correct point here too, on SVP. The analytics cannot capture how well you *execute*. Mahomes' ball that he mostly pushed, rather than threw? He hadda rush it...and didn't execute. Herbert missed his throw...execution. The analytics actually CAN capture that, but it's greatly obscured. And every coach will ALWAYS assume his team will execute, so their brains if they consider it at all, filter ONLY to the plays where the execution did work. It's a success bias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aylwin13 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Analytics doesn't take into account the mesasage that the offense gets from the not kicking of FGs. "You did all that great work driving up and down the field... and you get jack$#!t for it." Pariah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, aylwin13 said: Analytics doesn't take into account the mesasage that the offense gets from the not kicking of FGs. "You did all that great work driving up and down the field... and you get jack$#!t for it." Except that's never the lesson taken. The offense NEVER *wants* to kick the FG, they ALWAYS want to go for it unless it's completely unreasonable...like 4th and goal at the 15, or when the game situation demands it. Kicking the FG, when going for the TD or first down is plausible, tells the offense "you can't get it done." The offense's job isn't "move the ball so we can kick the FG" it's "get the ball into the end zone." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aylwin13 Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, unclevlad said: Except that's never the lesson taken. The offense NEVER *wants* to kick the FG, they ALWAYS want to go for it unless it's completely unreasonable...like 4th and goal at the 15, or when the game situation demands it. Kicking the FG, when going for the TD or first down is plausible, tells the offense "you can't get it done." The offense's job isn't "move the ball so we can kick the FG" it's "get the ball into the end zone." Sorry, but I totally disagree. At its most basic level the offense's job is to score points; and the defense's job is to stop the other team's offense from doing same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 The offense's job is to move the ball. Points are a common, but not implicit, side effect. Defenses are also often built around "bend but don't break." Generally because they can't do more...everyone would love an '85 Bears or 2000 Ravens defense, but those are outliers. Particularly with the rules favoring the offense. The field goal is always the glass half full, barring of course, special circumstances like the end of the first half or game. When time and score are the drivers, the FG can be the clear win. But in most other cases, it's glass half full. So who treats it as empty...not getting enough...or full...got something positive? MORE often, the defense is fine with giving up the FG, and the offense feels something of a letdown. The closer the offense is to scoring the TD, the bigger the letdown. Any time the offense gets 1st and goal, the FG is a failure option, NOT a success option. Now, on longer FGs, the math's different. Say the offense has 4th and 1 at the 20, so 37 yard FG, which is around 90-95% I believe. Going for the first down *has* to be downvalued because getting it does NOT mean you'll score the TD. First down at, let's say, the 18? Not easy to punch it in. You have to start looking at the probability of making the first down...THEN the probability of the TD after that. The combined probability is not very good. The issue isn't the analytics there; it's using them improperly/overestimating the positive side of the first down because going for the first down is the genius move, Or maybe to be a bit more charitable...going for it and failing is now FAR more accepted than not going for it. See it ALLLLLL the time in baseball...strikeout's fine if it comes with home runs. Base running is a total disaster...the number of times a runner's thrown out at 3rd to end the inning is truly mind-boggling. Oh, that brings up a side point. Analytics must also be situational. One we see ALL the time is, whether to go for 1 or go for 2 after the TD. If the 2 point play is 50%, then there is a *very slight* edge to going for 2 because the kick, in the NFL, is not a near-certainty. The kick EV is about 0.95, while if the play is really 50%, then its EV is 1. But that's nothing, and ignores side issues such as tipping your current *and future* opponents about what you like to do when going for 2. That's info they can use when the situation becomes crucial, like the end of the game. One of my major pet peeves is, offense is down 15, but punches it in for the touchdown. OK, so down 9. In my book, you *always* kick, barring conditions that impact the kicking game. Because the impact of failure is MUCH more damaging than the impact of success. Make the kick or 2 point...1 score game. Fail: still 2 scores. That's a massive difference late in the game. At 2 scores with 5 minutes left, say, the losing team probably can't afford to kick away and let the other team just run it 3 times. (IF they will. A huge issue with so many NFL offenses is, they'll still throw it 2 or 3 times.) It'll take off too much time. So maybe you have to onside kick, which is VERY low probability when it's expected, and if that fails, you're in a world of hurt. Kick the XP, it's 8...but that's 1 score, and the other team has a *great* deal more pressure on it. So if I hear an analyst say "well the analytics say go for 2"...yeah, right. Based on...what? Yes, they'll need to....but that doesn't mean they have to do it *now*. The upside is, ok, yoiu do need to go for 2, and if you kick the first time, then go for 2 if you get the chance...there won't be time to adjust and recover, most likely. But that's far less impactful, IMO, than the added value of maximizing scoreboard pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 To be pedantic, field goals are the job of special teams, not the offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan D. Hurricanes Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Old Man 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pariah Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Oh, here we go... Browns-Raiders game moved to Monday, two other games to Tuesday due to COVID-19 outbreaks Brown-Raiders Monday at 5:00 pm EST Seahawks-Rams Tuesday at 7:00 p. EST WFT-Eagles also Tuesday 7:00 pm EDT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 Beat me to it, I just saw this as well. Very likely an idle hope, but maybe these will be the only ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted December 17, 2021 Report Share Posted December 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Pariah said: Oh, here we go... Browns-Raiders game moved to Monday, two other games to Tuesday due to COVID-19 outbreaks Brown-Raiders Monday at 5:00 pm EST Seahawks-Rams Tuesday at 7:00 p. EST WFT-Eagles also Tuesday 7:00 pm EDT It's no use, the Raiders will still lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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